A study by scientists at the University of Hawaii at Manoa has suggested that by 2047, the average temperatures observed in each year will probably be hotter than the local temperature has ever been between 1860 and 2005.
Camilo Mora, lead scientist for the paper, explained that this means the coldest year in 2047 will be warmer than the hottest year in the past for most regions. The hottest year in one’s memory will become the norm, Mora added.
The study, published in Nature, assumes that greenhouse emissions continue at their current rates of growth. Mora’s team suggested that the tropics will experience unprecedented high temperatures earlier than 2047. The change will create stress for the societies located in these areas.
The study is based on climate models. While these models are the most advanced tools currently available, their accuracy remains to be confirmed. The models have revealed that there is a chance these high temperatures may not arrive before 20 to 25 years after the projected year of 2047.
Scientists not involved in Mora’s study have given slowing emissions more weight. These scientists praised the study but suggested that slowing emissions could lower the risk of catastrophic changes to the climate.
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